Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Blue Baby Blues

An article in today's Wall Street Journal points to a growing fertility gap between Republicans and Democrats that could well change the political face of America.

Arthur Brooks notes, what should be a disturbing trend for Democrats, that their failure to produce at the ballot box is tied to their to reproduce. Brooks notes: "Simply put, liberals have a big baby problem: They're not having enough of them, they haven't for a long time, and their pool of potential new voters is suffering as a result. According to the 2004 General Social Survey, if you picked 100 unrelated politically liberal adults at random, you would find that they had, between them, 147 children. If you picked 100 conservatives, you would find 208 kids. That's a "fertility gap" of 41%. Given that about 80% of people with an identifiable party preference grow up to vote the same way as their parents, this gap translates into lots more little Republicans than little Democrats to vote in future elections."

If this trend continues,Brooks says there will be some dramatic shifts on the political horizon: "Consider future presidential elections in a swing state (like Ohio), and assume that the current patterns in fertility continue. A state that was split 50-50 between left and right in 2004 will tilt right by 2012, 54% to 46%. By 2020, it will be certifiably right-wing, 59% to 41%. A state that is currently 55-45 in favor of liberals (like California) will be 54-46 in favor of conservatives by 2020--and all for no other reason than babies."

As the father of two future republicans I can look forward to my golden years knowing the country will be in the RIGHT hands!

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